Will the next President confirm 2 Supreme Court justices?
Prediction markets currently give a 32% probability that Will the next President confirm 2 Supreme Court justices?. This contract trades at 32¢ on Kalshi, closing January 20, 2029. This market is pricing in a relatively low probability (31%) of two Supreme Court confirmations over the next presidential term, though the 80.5% implied yield on the Yes side suggests meaningful asymmetric upside potential for believers in vacancies.
Analysis
This market is pricing in a relatively low probability (31%) of two Supreme Court confirmations over the next presidential term, though the 80.5% implied yield on the Yes side suggests meaningful asymmetric upside potential for believers in vacancies. The zero 24-hour volume combined with modest $8,368 open interest indicates thin liquidity, making the 1¢ spread somewhat misleading as a true execution cost. The recent 2-cent price decline from 33¢ over seven days and the neutral regime score suggest the market is still calibrating to baseline expectations, with over 1,000 days until expiry providing ample time for Supreme Court retirements to materially shift pricing.
Resolution rules
If 2 Supreme Court Justices are confirmed during the 2025-2029 presidential term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEWSCOTUSCONF-29JAN20-2 yes 100