Will the next President confirm 0 Supreme Court justices?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will the next President confirm 0 Supreme Court justices?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Kalshi, closing January 20, 2029. This market prices a historically unlikely scenario at just 18%, reflecting the strong baseline expectation that at least one justice will be confirmed during a full presidential term.
Analysis
This market prices a historically unlikely scenario at just 18%, reflecting the strong baseline expectation that at least one justice will be confirmed during a full presidential term. The extreme yield asymmetry—164.7% for Yes versus 7.9% for No—suggests meaningful uncertainty despite the low probability, possibly driven by scenarios involving Senate gridlock or unexpected political dynamics. With only $1 in 24-hour volume against $11k open interest and a moderate 5 cliff risk index, liquidity is thin relative to positions held, creating potential execution challenges for traders seeking to adjust exposure as we approach the 1010-day expiry.
Resolution rules
If 0 Supreme Court Justices are confirmed during the 2025-2029 presidential term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEWSCOTUSCONF-29JAN20-0 yes 100