Will the next President confirm 1 Supreme Court justices?
Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that Will the next President confirm 1 Supreme Court justices?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Kalshi, closing January 20, 2029. The market is pricing in a notably low probability (33%) for at least one Supreme Court confirmation over a full presidential term, which seems conservative given historical confirmation rates and the current Court's age demographics.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a notably low probability (33%) for at least one Supreme Court confirmation over a full presidential term, which seems conservative given historical confirmation rates and the current Court's age demographics. The 93% implied yield on the Yes side reflects significant underpricing relative to baseline expectations, though the thin $111.96 daily volume and wide 5¢ spread suggest limited liquidity is constraining price discovery. With over 1,000 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a mispriced long-term opportunity rather than a near-term catalyst play, though the 3 Cliff Risk Index warrants monitoring for unexpected political shifts.
Resolution rules
If 1 Supreme Court Justices are confirmed during the 2025-2029 presidential term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEWSCOTUSCONF-29JAN20-1 yes 100