9 · Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly
9 is priced at 12¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 5 inside Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly.
Price history
12¢ current
−6¢Contract brief
If the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) is exactly 9 in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
9
Rank
#3 of 5
Leader
10 71¢
Range
2¢-71¢
Family volume
$29K
Identifier
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26AUG01-E9
Jul 27, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
11¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$21K
Family rank
#3 of 5
5 outcomes · Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Family volume
$29K
Orderbook snapshot
11 / 12¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) is exactly 9 in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26AUG01-E9
Event family
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$29K
Outcomes
5
Highest price
10 71¢
Current share
74%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.