Number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Connecticut in structures with 5 units or more in 2026 above 3,500 units
Above 3,500 units is priced at 81¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 74¢ bid, 76¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 8 inside Will the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Connecticut in structures with 5 units or more in 2026 be above.
Price history
81¢ current
−10¢Contract brief
If the U.S. Census Bureau reports that the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Connecticut in structures with 5 units or more in calendar year 2026 is strictly above 3,500 units, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 3,500 units
Rank
#1 of 8
Leader
Above 3,500 units 81¢
Range
2¢-81¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T3500
Sep 20, 2026, 2:38 PM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
74¢
Ask
76¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$727
Family rank
#1 of 8
8 outcomes · Will the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Connecticut in structures with 5 units or more in 2026 be above
Closes
May 3, 2027
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
74 / 76¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the U.S. Census Bureau reports that the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Connecticut in structures with 5 units or more in calendar year 2026 is strictly above 3,500 units, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 3, 2027
Identifier
KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T3500
Event family
Will the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Connecticut in structures with 5 units or more in 2026 be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Above 3,500 units 81¢
Current share
42%
Above 3,500 units
kalshi · KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T3500
Above 4,000 units
kalshi · KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T4000
Above 4,500 units
kalshi · KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T4500
Above 5,000 units
kalshi · KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T5000
Above 5,500 units
kalshi · KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T5500
Above 6,000 units
kalshi · KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T6000
Above 6,500 units
kalshi · KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T6500
Above 7,000 units
kalshi · KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T7000
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.568
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
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Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
Read 81% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.