Will the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Connecticut in structures with 5 units or more in 2026 be above 3,500 units
Leader sits at 69% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 52%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 3,500 units
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
52¢
Above 4,000 units
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
May 3, 2027
227 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Connecticut in structures with 5 units or more in 2026 be above
Will the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Connecticut in structures with 5 units or more in 2026 be above 3,500 units?: Above 3,500 units
KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T3500
Will the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Connecticut in structures with 5 units or more in 2026 be above 6,000 units?: Above 6,000 units
KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T6000
Will the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Connecticut in structures with 5 units or more in 2026 be above 5,500 units?: Above 5,500 units
KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T5500
Will the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Connecticut in structures with 5 units or more in 2026 be above 5,000 units?: Above 5,000 units
KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T5000
Will the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Connecticut in structures with 5 units or more in 2026 be above 4,500 units?: Above 4,500 units
KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T4500
Will the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Connecticut in structures with 5 units or more in 2026 be above 4,000 units?: Above 4,000 units
KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T4000
Analysis
This market estimates an 89% chance that Connecticut will authorize housing units in multi-family structures (5+ units) totaling above 3,500 in 2026. The high probability reflects strong recent trends in multi-family permitting across the Northeast and Connecticut's housing shortage pressures. Connecticut authorized approximately 5,800 such units in 2023 and 4,100 in 2024, suggesting the 3,500 threshold is likely given historical patterns. The main downside risk is a slowdown in economic activity or construction financing tightening in the second half of 2026. The outcome will be determined by U.S. Census Bureau building permit data released in early 2027, which provides the official count of all permitted units in the specified category for the full calendar year.
- ›Connecticut authorized 4,100+ multi-family housing units in 2024, establishing a baseline well above the 3,500 threshold
- ›Year-to-date 2026 permitting data through August would be publicly available and likely shows whether the pace is tracking toward 3,500 units
- ›Northeast regional construction spending and labor availability directly influence permitting velocity in multi-family development
- ›Interest rate environment and commercial real estate financing conditions in Q3-Q4 2026 affect whether projects clear permitting before year-end
- ›Census Bureau releases final 2026 permit data in February 2027, which serves as the definitive resolver for this market
What moved the line
- Sep 11Above 3,500 units↑14pp49→63¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Above 4,500 units↑4pp14→18¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Above 5,500 units↓4pp9→5¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11Above 5,500 units↑3pp6→9¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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