Will Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick leave the House before the midterms
Leader sits at 63% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 29%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Nov 3, 2026
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
29¢
Before Jul 1, 2026
Spread
34pp
contested
24h volume
$6
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
178 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will the number of representatives tony gonzales, eric swalwell, cory mills, and sheila cherfilus-mccormick who leave the u.s. house of representatives (with an actual departure date, per effectiveleave contract) be exactly 4 before
Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave the U.S. House of Representatives (with an actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE contract) be exactly 4 before July 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026
KXLEAVEHOUSECOMBO-27JAN01-B260701
Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave the U.S. House of Representatives (with an actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE contract) be exactly 4 before June 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2026
KXLEAVEHOUSECOMBO-27JAN01-B260601
Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave the U.S. House of Representatives (with an actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE contract) be exactly 4 before November 3, 2026?: Before Nov 3, 2026
KXLEAVEHOUSECOMBO-27JAN01-B261103
What moved the line
- May 7Before Jun 1, 2026↓6pp22→16¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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