Will Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick leave the House before the midterms

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

30-day trend

Aggregate of 1 contract · 16d

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Cluster 1

Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave the U.S. House of Representatives (with an actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE contract) be exactly 4 before November 3, 2026

1 contract$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave the U.S. House of Representatives (with an actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE contract) be exactly 4 before November 3, 2026?: Before Nov 3, 2026

KXLEAVEHOUSECOMBO-27JAN01-B261103

30¢−1pp$0K→

Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that all four named House members—Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick—will depart the chamber before November 3, 2026. The 60% reading suggests traders view departures as more likely than not, though uncertainty remains about whether each individual will actually leave. The key driver is whether current departure signals, resignation announcements, or retirement decisions materialize into actual departures with documented effective dates. The timeline extends to the general midterm election, making this sensitive to any formal resignation filings, redistricting decisions, or announced vacancies. The significant gap between the 60% pre-election probability and the 20% probability for departures by July 1 suggests most expected movement is concentrated in the late summer or fall.

›Current official status and publicly stated intentions of each of the four representatives regarding 2026 continuation
›Number of documented resignation letters or formal departure announcements filed with House administration
›Redistricting outcomes and primary election results that might accelerate or prevent departures
›Historical baseline: typical rate of House member departures in non-election versus election years
›Any announced special elections, vacancies, or leadership changes affecting these specific seats between now and November 2026

Recently closed in election 2026

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This page aggregates 1 contract (30% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

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