Will Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick leave the House before the midterms
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
83 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave the U.S. House of Representatives (with an actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE contract) be exactly 4 before November 3, 2026
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that all four named House members—Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick—will depart the chamber before November 3, 2026. The 60% reading suggests traders view departures as more likely than not, though uncertainty remains about whether each individual will actually leave. The key driver is whether current departure signals, resignation announcements, or retirement decisions materialize into actual departures with documented effective dates. The timeline extends to the general midterm election, making this sensitive to any formal resignation filings, redistricting decisions, or announced vacancies. The significant gap between the 60% pre-election probability and the 20% probability for departures by July 1 suggests most expected movement is concentrated in the late summer or fall.
- ›Current official status and publicly stated intentions of each of the four representatives regarding 2026 continuation
- ›Number of documented resignation letters or formal departure announcements filed with House administration
- ›Redistricting outcomes and primary election results that might accelerate or prevent departures
- ›Historical baseline: typical rate of House member departures in non-election versus election years
- ›Any announced special elections, vacancies, or leadership changes affecting these specific seats between now and November 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (8% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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