SimpleFunctions

Price of WTI oil above 75 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST

75 or above is priced at 69¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 61¢ bid, 76¢ ask, 15¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 11 inside Will the price of WTI oil be above.

Price history

69¢ current

+52¢
25¢50¢75¢
Jun 19, 2026Jul 19, 2026

Contract brief

If the settlement price of WTI Crude Oil on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST is above 75 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

75 or above

Rank

#1 of 11

Leader

75 or above 61¢

Range

8¢-61¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXWTIDIRY-26DEC31H1430-T75

Jul 19, 2026, 8:38 AM UTC · 7m ago

Implied probability

69¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 19, 2026, 8:38 AM UTC · 7m ago

Bid

61¢

Ask

76¢

Spread

15¢

Reported volume

$2K

Family rank

#1 of 11

11 outcomes · Will the price of WTI oil be above

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

61 / 76¢

Kalshi
15¢ spread
BidSize
61¢5
60¢5
43¢104
42¢500
9¢41
AskSize
76¢257
77¢250
81¢163
82¢162
85¢75

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the settlement price of WTI Crude Oil on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST is above 75 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

KXWTIDIRY-26DEC31H1430-T75

SF Signal
SF Index
237.57
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

141.0%

IY (No)

345.1%

Adj IY

238%

CRI

2

RV

793%

VR

4.80

Regime

neutral

Score

0.341

Observability

low

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

141.0%
345.1%
Adj IY
238%
2
RV
793%
VR
4.80
IAR
0.4/h
Overround
1.5%
LAS
0.31

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.