49 · Will the Republican party hold
49 is priced at 13¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 12¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 15 inside Will the Republican party hold.
Price history
13¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If the Republican party has exactly 49 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
49
Rank
#3 of 15
Leader
50 15¢
Range
2¢-15¢
Family volume
$32
Identifier
RSENATESEATS-27-E49
Jun 22, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
12¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$32
Family rank
#3 of 15
15 outcomes · Will the Republican party hold
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Family volume
$32
Orderbook snapshot
12 / 13¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Republican party has exactly 49 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Identifier
RSENATESEATS-27-E49
Event family
Will the Republican party hold.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$32
Outcomes
15
Highest price
50 15¢
Current share
100%
50
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E50
51
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E51
49
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E49
47
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E47
52
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E52
Above 57
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-A57
48
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E48
54
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E54
53
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E53
55
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E55
56
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E56
46
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E46
Below 45
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-B45
57
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E57
45
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E45
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.