50 · Will the Republican party hold
50 is priced at 16¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 15 inside Will the Republican party hold.
Price history
16¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If the Republican party has exactly 50 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
50
Rank
#1 of 15
Leader
50 15¢
Range
2¢-15¢
Family volume
$20K
Identifier
RSENATESEATS-27-E50
Jun 13, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 13m ago
Implied probability
Bid
15¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$5K
Family rank
#1 of 15
15 outcomes · Will the Republican party hold
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Family volume
$20K
Orderbook snapshot
15 / 16¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Republican party has exactly 50 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Identifier
RSENATESEATS-27-E50
Event family
Will the Republican party hold.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$20K
Outcomes
15
Highest price
50 15¢
Current share
0%
49
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E49
50
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E50
51
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E51
52
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E52
48
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E48
47
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E47
54
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E54
Above 57
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-A57
53
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E53
56
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E56
55
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E55
Below 45
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-B45
46
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E46
57
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E57
45
kalshi · RSENATESEATS-27-E45
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.