What is the current probability for "Will the Secretary of State visit Switzerland before 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 60¢ (60% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 246 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the Secretary of State visit Switzerland before 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 142.4% and 154.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the Secretary of State visit Switzerland before 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the Secretary of State visit Switzerland before 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that Will the Secretary of State visit Switzerland before 2027?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This illiquid market shows minimal trading activity with zero 24-hour volume and just $196 open interest, making the 56¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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60¢

Bid/Ask 51/59¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $196·Closes Jan 1, 2027·246d remaining

KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-SWI

7-day price14 snapshots · 7 regime

57¢51¢ current

Apr 1051¢Apr 29

Analysis

13d ago

This illiquid market shows minimal trading activity with zero 24-hour volume and just $196 open interest, making the 56¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The asymmetric implied yields (119.8% for Yes vs. 165.1% for No) suggest the No side is underpriced relative to the Yes side, though the thin liquidity undermines confidence in either valuation. With 260 days to expiry and a recent 3¢ downward drift, this market lacks the depth and conviction needed for meaningful analysis.

Resolution rules

If the Secretary of State visits Switzerland| before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 142.4%

IY (No) 154.2%

Adj IY 77%

CRI 1

Overround 2.8%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	142.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	154.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	77%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/30/2026, 7:40:46 AM

Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 7:38:56 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-SWI yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →