Ukraine · Will the Secretary of State visit
Ukraine is priced at 25¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 25¢ bid, 26¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 9 inside Will the Secretary of State visit.
Price history
25¢ current
Contract brief
If the Secretary of State visits Ukraine| before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Ukraine
Rank
#6 of 9
Leader
Mexico 49¢
Range
10¢-49¢
Family volume
$45
Identifier
KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-UKR
Jun 22, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
25¢
Ask
26¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$4K
Family rank
#6 of 9
9 outcomes · Will the Secretary of State visit
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$45
Orderbook snapshot
25 / 26¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Secretary of State visits Ukraine| before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-UKR
Event family
Will the Secretary of State visit.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$45
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Mexico 49¢
Current share
0%
Mexico
kalshi · KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-MEX
Qatar
kalshi · KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-QAT
Switzerland
kalshi · KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-SWI
Cuba
kalshi · KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-CUB
Poland
kalshi · KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-POL
Ukraine
kalshi · KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-UKR
Oman
kalshi · KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-OMA
Russia
kalshi · KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-RUS
Venezuela
kalshi · KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-VEN
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 25% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.