What is the current probability for "Will the Secretary of State visit Venezuela before 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 34¢ (34% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 246 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the Secretary of State visit Venezuela before 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 287.6% and 76.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the Secretary of State visit Venezuela before 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the Secretary of State visit Venezuela before 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 34% probability that Will the Secretary of State visit Venezuela before 2027?. This contract trades at 34¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $1,520 open interest, suggesting the 37¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus.

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34¢

Bid/Ask 34/39¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $2·OI $1,512·Closes Jan 1, 2027·246d remaining

KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-VEN

7-day price20 snapshots · 9 regime

40¢34¢ current

Apr 934¢Apr 30

Analysis

13d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $1,520 open interest, suggesting the 37¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus. The 249.9% implied yield on the Yes side is unusually high and likely reflects the thin liquidity rather than true market conviction, with the 5¢ spread indicating difficulty in execution. The modest 3¢ downward price drift over seven days and neutral regime score suggest limited recent information flow, making this contract suitable primarily for long-term conviction bets rather than active trading.

Resolution rules

If the Secretary of State visits Venezuela| before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 287.6%

IY (No) 76.3%

Adj IY 144%

CRI 2

Overround 2.8%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	287.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	76.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	144%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 7:35:25 AM

Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 7:23:56 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSECSTATEVISIT-27-VEN yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →