Will the S&P 500 be between 7400 and 7599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will the S&P 500 be between 7400 and 7599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market is pricing an extremely narrow 200-point band (7400-7599.99) on the S&P 500 roughly 18 months out at just 12¢, implying only a 12% probability despite the index currently trading around 5,900—requiring roughly 25-29% appreciation by year-end 2026.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely narrow 200-point band (7400-7599.99) on the S&P 500 roughly 18 months out at just 12¢, implying only a 12% probability despite the index currently trading around 5,900—requiring roughly 25-29% appreciation by year-end 2026. The 1,140.7% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the modest 24-hour volume of $3,667, suggesting thin liquidity and potential mispricing, though the $131k open interest indicates some meaningful positioning. With 259 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the 1¢ spread is tight, but the recent price uptick from 10¢ to 11¢ warrants monitoring for whether this reflects genuine conviction or technical noise in a low-volume contract.
Resolution rules
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 7400-7599.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7500 yes 100