SimpleFunctions

Total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election above 11200000

Above 11.20M is priced at 21¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 17¢ bid, 24¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 9 inside Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election be above.

Price history

21¢ current

+6¢
10¢20¢
Jul 9, 2026Aug 7, 2026

Contract brief

If the total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election is above 11200000, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above 11.20M

Rank

#5 of 9

Leader

Above 8.80M 76¢

Range

1¢-76¢

Family volume

$120

Identifier

KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-TXSEN-11200000

Aug 7, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 9m ago

Implied probability

21¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 7, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 9m ago

Bid

17¢

Ask

24¢

Spread

Reported volume

$949

Family rank

#5 of 9

9 outcomes · Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election be above

Closes

Nov 3, 2027

Family volume

$120

Orderbook snapshot

17 / 24¢

Kalshi
7¢ spread
BidSize
17¢100
15¢200
AskSize
24¢100
25¢200
74¢200
75¢560
89¢45

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election is above 11200000, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Nov 3, 2027

Identifier

KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-TXSEN-11200000

SF Signal
SF Index
196.76
Regime
taker

Browse this series

2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets
Per-series collection — every live contract in the KXMIDTERMVOTETURN series on Kalshi, sorted by 24h volume.

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

393.5%

IY (No)

16.5%

Adj IY

197%

CRI

5

Overround

1.5%

Regime

taker

Score

0.636

Observability

direct

Event type

political

Full indicator table

393.5%
16.5%
Adj IY
197%
5
Overround
1.5%

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SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.