More than 3000 measles cases in 2026
Above 3000 is priced at 89¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 85¢ bid, 89¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 5 inside Will there be more than.
Price history
89¢ current
Contract brief
If the number of measles in 2026 is above 3000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 3000
Rank
#1 of 5
Leader
Above 3000 85¢
Range
7¢-85¢
Family volume
$467
Identifier
KXMEASLES-26-3000
Jun 28, 2026, 8:38 AM UTC · 1m ago
Implied probability
Bid
85¢
Ask
89¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$56
Family rank
#1 of 5
5 outcomes · Will there be more than
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$467
Orderbook snapshot
85 / 89¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the number of measles in 2026 is above 3000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXMEASLES-26-3000
Event family
Will there be more than.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$467
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Above 3000 85¢
Current share
12%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.568
Observability
high
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 89% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.