More than 4000 measles cases in 2026
Above 4000 is priced at 34¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 31¢ bid, 32¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 5 inside Will there be more than.
Price history
34¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If the number of measles in 2026 is above 4000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 4000
Rank
#2 of 5
Leader
Above 3000 85¢
Range
7¢-85¢
Family volume
$472
Identifier
KXMEASLES-26-4000
Jun 28, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC · 26m ago
Implied probability
Bid
31¢
Ask
32¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$354
Family rank
#2 of 5
5 outcomes · Will there be more than
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$472
Orderbook snapshot
31 / 32¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the number of measles in 2026 is above 4000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXMEASLES-26-4000
Event family
Will there be more than.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$472
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Above 3000 85¢
Current share
75%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.