Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027
Argentina is priced at 36¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 35¢ bid, 36¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 9 inside Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027.
Price history
36¢ current
Contract brief
If a free trade deal with Argentina has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Argentina
Rank
#1 of 9
Leader
Argentina 35¢
Range
10¢-35¢
Family volume
$1
Identifier
KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-ARG
Jul 8, 2026, 12:08 PM UTC · 4m ago
Implied probability
Bid
35¢
Ask
36¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#1 of 9
9 outcomes · Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$1
Orderbook snapshot
35 / 36¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a free trade deal with Argentina has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-ARG
Event family
Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Argentina 35¢
Current share
0%
Argentina
kalshi · KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-ARG
China
kalshi · KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-CHI
European Union
kalshi · KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-EU
India
kalshi · KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-IND
Indonesia
kalshi · KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-INDO
Taiwan
kalshi · KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-TAI
United Kingdom
kalshi · KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-UK
Kenya
kalshi · KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-KEN
Switzerland
kalshi · KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-SWI
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
The 1992 Pound Trade Has a $82M Polymarket Twin: Conviction Macro Bets in the Age of On-Chain Liquidity
Soros and Druckenmiller scaled their pound short to $10B in a single September 1992 day. Théo deployed $80M across 11 Polymarket accounts on Trump 2024 and netted ~$82.3M. The mechanic — proprietary signal, conviction sizing, asymmetric payoff — is identical. The instrument is new.
US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress
A deep‑dive guide for prediction market traders on the 2026 US midterm elections: House and Senate control odds, key races, Trump’s impact, economic and approval scenarios, polling accuracy, and data‑driven trading strategies.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 36% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.