Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027
India is priced at 16¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 9 inside Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027.
Price history
16¢ current
Contract brief
If a free trade deal with India has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
India
Rank
#4 of 9
Leader
Argentina 35¢
Range
10¢-35¢
Family volume
$1
Identifier
KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-IND
Jul 8, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
15¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#4 of 9
9 outcomes · Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$1
Orderbook snapshot
15 / 16¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a free trade deal with India has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-IND
Event family
Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Argentina 35¢
Current share
0%
Argentina
kalshi · KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-ARG
China
kalshi · KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-CHI
European Union
kalshi · KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-EU
India
kalshi · KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-IND
Taiwan
kalshi · KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-TAI
Indonesia
kalshi · KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-INDO
United Kingdom
kalshi · KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-UK
Kenya
kalshi · KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-KEN
Switzerland
kalshi · KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-SWI
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.