Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 11% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
China
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
India
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$19
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
81 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027
Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027?: European Union
KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-EU
Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027?: United Kingdom
KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-UK
Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027?: Taiwan
KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-TAI
Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027?: Switzerland
KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-SWI
Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027?: Kenya
KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-KEN
Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027?: Indonesia
KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-INDO
Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027?: India
KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-IND
Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027?: China
KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-CHI
Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027?: Argentina
KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-ARG
Analysis
This represents the probability that Trump will establish a new trade or diplomatic agreement with Argentina before January 1, 2027—currently priced at 19%, making it the leading outcome among nine possible countries. The relatively low level reflects the short timeframe (approximately 5.5 months remaining) and the typical pace of major trade negotiations, which often extend beyond six months. Market participants appear to view a China deal as comparably likely (16%), with European Union and India negotiations also showing material probability. The key driver affecting this probability would be any public announcement of serious ongoing negotiations, formal trade talks announcement, or geopolitical catalyst affecting US-Argentina relations. The biggest resolution catalyst would be Trump's stated timeline for trade deals or any official negotiation commencement before year-end; markets could also shift materially if other countries announce completed agreements, which would mechanically lower Argentina's probability in this winner-take-all structure.
- ›Trump's public statements or administration announcements about Argentina-specific trade negotiations or agreements
- ›The speed at which formal trade discussions typically progress to completion—most major deals require 6-12+ months of negotiation
- ›Whether geopolitical developments (currency crises, commodity prices, political changes in Argentina) create urgency for a US deal
- ›The competitive structure of this market—any completed deal with another country eliminates Argentina's winning probability entirely
- ›Historical precedent for Trump's deal-making speed and whether recent patterns suggest faster timeline than traditional trade negotiations
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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