Autism · Will Trump say "
Autism is priced at 55¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 48¢ bid, 58¢ ask, 10¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 15 inside Will Trump say ".
Price history
55¢ current
+40¢Contract brief
If Autism, or a plural or possessive form of Autism, is stated by Donald Trump before Aug 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Autism
Rank
#7 of 15
Leader
Cognitive 99¢
Range
10¢-99¢
Family volume
$6K
Identifier
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01-AUTI
Jul 12, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
48¢
Ask
58¢
Spread
10¢
24h volume
$52
Family rank
#7 of 15
15 outcomes · Will Trump say "
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Family volume
$6K
Orderbook snapshot
48 / 58¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Autism, or a plural or possessive form of Autism, is stated by Donald Trump before Aug 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01-AUTI
Event family
Will Trump say ".
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$6K
Outcomes
15
Highest price
Cognitive 99¢
Current share
1%
Cognitive
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01-COGN
DEI / Woke
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01-DEI
Newscum
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01-NEWS
Trump Derangement Syndrome
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01-TRUM
Fat shot / Ozempic
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01-FAT
UFO / UAP
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01-UFO
Knicks
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01-KNIC
Autism
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01-AUTI
Epstein
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01-EPST
Pelosi
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01-PELO
Palestine / Palestinian
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01-PALE
Nine War / Ninth War
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01-NINE
Discombobulator / Discombobulate / Discombobulated
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01-DISC
Make Iran Great Again
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01-MAKE
Epstein Island
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01-EPSTI
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.