SimpleFunctions

Epstein Island · Will Trump say "

Epstein Island is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 10¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #15 of 15 inside Will Trump say ".

Price history

15¢ current

+10¢
10¢
Jul 1, 2026Jul 12, 2026

Contract brief

If Epstein Island, or a plural or possessive form of Epstein Island, is stated by Donald Trump before Aug 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Epstein Island

Rank

#15 of 15

Leader

Cognitive 99¢

Range

10¢-99¢

Family volume

$6K

Identifier

KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01-EPSTI

Jul 12, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 19m ago

Implied probability

15¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 12, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 19m ago

Bid

10¢

Ask

12¢

Spread

24h volume

$745

Family rank

#15 of 15

15 outcomes · Will Trump say "

Closes

Aug 1, 2026

Family volume

$6K

Orderbook snapshot

10 / 12¢

Kalshi
2¢ spread
BidSize
10¢1
9¢100
8¢701
6¢666
5¢50
AskSize
12¢199
15¢50
16¢2
17¢100
19¢120

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Epstein Island, or a plural or possessive form of Epstein Island, is stated by Donald Trump before Aug 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 1, 2026

Identifier

KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26AUG01-EPSTI

SF Signal
SF Index
8301.32
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

16602.6%

IY (No)

205.0%

Adj IY

8301%

CRI

9

Overround

3.8%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

16602.6%
205.0%
Adj IY
8301%
9
Overround
3.8%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.