TSMC / TSM · Will Trump say "
TSMC / TSM is priced at 36¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 35¢ bid, 36¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #12 of 16 inside Will Trump say ".
Price history
36¢ current
+33¢Contract brief
If TSMC / TSM, or a plural or possessive form of TSMC / TSM, is stated by Donald Trump before Aug 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
TSMC / TSM
Rank
#12 of 16
Leader
SpaceX / SPCX 99¢
Range
3¢-99¢
Family volume
$6K
Identifier
KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26AUG01-TSM
Jul 9, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 25m ago
Implied probability
Bid
35¢
Ask
36¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$3
Family rank
#12 of 16
16 outcomes · Will Trump say "
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Family volume
$6K
Orderbook snapshot
35 / 36¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If TSMC / TSM, or a plural or possessive form of TSMC / TSM, is stated by Donald Trump before Aug 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26AUG01-TSM
Event family
Will Trump say ".
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$6K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
SpaceX / SPCX 99¢
Current share
0%
SpaceX / SPCX
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26AUG01-SPCX
CNN
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26AUG01-CNN
Anthropic / Claude
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26AUG01-ANTH
Apple / AAPL
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26AUG01-AAPL
ChatGPT / OpenAI
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26AUG01-CHAT
Deere / DE
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26AUG01-DE
Google / GOOG / GOOGL
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26AUG01-GOOG
General Motors / GM
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26AUG01-GENE
Microsoft / MSFT
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26AUG01-MICR
ExxonMobil / XOM
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26AUG01-EXXO
Pfizer / PFE
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26AUG01-PFE
TSMC / TSM
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26AUG01-TSM
Tesla / TSLA
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26AUG01-TSLA
Fox News
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26AUG01-FOX
Airbnb / ABNB
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26AUG01-ABNB
Rigetti / RGTI
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26AUG01-RGTI
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.