Will Trump say "Airbnb / ABNB" before Aug 1, 2026
Leader sits at 6% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
ExxonMobil / XOM
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
ChatGPT / OpenAI
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$13K
liquid
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
2 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump say "
Will Trump say "ChatGPT / OpenAI" before Aug 1, 2026?: ChatGPT / OpenAI
KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26AUG01-CHAT
Will Trump say "Pfizer / PFE" before Aug 1, 2026?: Pfizer / PFE
KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26AUG01-PFE
Will Trump say "ExxonMobil / XOM" before Aug 1, 2026?: ExxonMobil / XOM
KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26AUG01-EXXO
Will Trump say "Tesla / TSLA" before Aug 1, 2026?: Tesla / TSLA
KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26AUG01-TSLA
Analysis
This contract asks whether Trump will mention Airbnb or its ticker symbol ABNB in public remarks before August 1, 2026—a 30-day window. The 93% probability reflects the leading market price for Trump mentioning CNN, indicating strong trader confidence that major media outlets and companies will be referenced frequently during this period. The probability would likely move down if Trump restricts public statements or focuses on specific topics that don't involve corporate or media commentary. It could move up if he holds campaign rallies, press conferences, or media appearances where he typically names companies and news organizations. The contract resolves based on verifiable public statements—speeches, interviews, social media posts, or press conferences—making the outcome dependent on both Trump's speaking frequency and the breadth of topics he addresses over the next month.
- ›Trump's scheduled public appearances and rally dates in July 2026, which directly determine opportunities for the statement to occur
- ›Historical frequency of Trump naming specific companies and media outlets in his typical public remarks, establishing a baseline for mention probability
- ›Airbnb's current prominence in political discourse or business news—whether the company is actively involved in policy debates or controversies Trump would likely reference
- ›The specificity of the contract requiring 'Airbnb' or ticker symbols 'ABNB' rather than generic hospitality industry mentions, narrowing the resolution criteria
- ›Trading volume and price correlation with other media/company contracts in the same bundle, suggesting market confidence in a clustered pattern of business name-dropping
Recently closed in trump
- How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026last 38% · 1d
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Hahn as FDA commissionerlast 49% · 2d
- Who will be Trump's next Attorney Generallast 97% · 13d
- Will President Trump issue any executive action on declassifying or releasing records related to unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) or UFOs before Jul 1, 2026last 3% · 20d
- Will Donald Trump pardon between 3 and 9 people before May 1, 2026last 27% · 22d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in trump.
In trump
Related reading
Trump Mentions Market Explodes Ahead of Nassau County Remarks
The 'What will Donald Trump say' market (KXTRUMPMENTION-26AUG) saw cumulative volume exceeding 300k across dozens of sub-contracts. The most specific phrases (e.g., 'Who are you with' at 82¢) are heavily traded. This reflects intense retail interest in decoding Trump's public statements.
Trump Mention Markets See Frenzied Activity as Traders Bet on His Next Fox News Line
The largest cluster of Trump-related trading is in 'mention' markets, where contracts predict specific phrases Donald Trump will say during his Fox News appearances or speeches. The most liquid contract trades at 99¢ with 54,452 volume. These markets represent a unique form of political sentiment trading, with dozens of specific phrases being priced with near-certainty.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.