Will Trump say "Airbnb / ABNB" before Aug 1, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract asks whether Trump will mention Airbnb or its ticker symbol ABNB in public remarks before August 1, 2026—a 30-day window. The 93% probability reflects the leading market price for Trump mentioning CNN, indicating strong trader confidence that major media outlets and companies will be referenced frequently during this period. The probability would likely move down if Trump restricts public statements or focuses on specific topics that don't involve corporate or media commentary. It could move up if he holds campaign rallies, press conferences, or media appearances where he typically names companies and news organizations. The contract resolves based on verifiable public statements—speeches, interviews, social media posts, or press conferences—making the outcome dependent on both Trump's speaking frequency and the breadth of topics he addresses over the next month.

• ›Trump's scheduled public appearances and rally dates in July 2026, which directly determine opportunities for the statement to occur
• ›Historical frequency of Trump naming specific companies and media outlets in his typical public remarks, establishing a baseline for mention probability
• ›Airbnb's current prominence in political discourse or business news—whether the company is actively involved in policy debates or controversies Trump would likely reference
• ›The specificity of the contract requiring 'Airbnb' or ticker symbols 'ABNB' rather than generic hospitality industry mentions, narrowing the resolution criteria
• ›Trading volume and price correlation with other media/company contracts in the same bundle, suggesting market confidence in a clustered pattern of business name-dropping

What moved the line

• Jul 2Google / GOOG / GOOGL↑38pp14→52¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 3ChatGPT / OpenAI↑36pp43→79¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 2ChatGPT / OpenAI↑33pp10→43¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 2General Motors / GM↑32pp18→50¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 3Pfizer / PFE↑26pp14→40¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds