Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Trump's first announced Labor Secretary pick be confirmed as Secretary of Labor before Sep 1, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 58¢ (58% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on September 1, 2026. 132 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will Trump's first announced Labor Secretary pick be confirmed as Secretary of Labor before Sep 1, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 216.8% and 351.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will Trump's first announced Labor Secretary pick be confirmed as Secretary of Labor before Sep 1, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	216.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	351.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	176%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will Trump's first announced Labor Secretary pick be confirmed as Secretary of Labor before Sep 1, 2026?

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