SimpleFunctions

United States Challenger Job Cuts for July 2026 above 80,000

Above 80,000 is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 9 inside Will United States Challenger Job Cuts for July 2026 be above.

Price history

15¢ current

14¢
0¢25¢
Jul 1, 2026Jul 18, 2026

Contract brief

If Trading Economics reports that United States Challenger job cuts for July 2026 is above 80,000, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above 80,000

Rank

#6 of 9

Leader

Above 30,000 84¢

Range

2¢-84¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXCHCUTS-26AUG06-T80000

Jul 23, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 1h ago

Implied probability

15¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 23, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 1h ago

Bid

11¢

Ask

16¢

Spread

Reported volume

$270

Family rank

#6 of 9

9 outcomes · Will United States Challenger Job Cuts for July 2026 be above

Closes

Aug 6, 2026

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

11 / 16¢

Kalshi
5¢ spread
BidSize
11¢250
AskSize
16¢10
17¢20
18¢250
22¢50
29¢295

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Trading Economics reports that United States Challenger job cuts for July 2026 is above 80,000, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 6, 2026

Identifier

KXCHCUTS-26AUG06-T80000

SF Signal
SF Index
10583.36
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

21166.7%

IY (No)

323.3%

Adj IY

10583%

CRI

8

Overround

1.4%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

21166.7%
323.3%
Adj IY
10583%
8
Overround
1.4%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.