Xi Jinping out before 2027
Xi Jinping out before 2027 is priced at 6¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 6¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
6¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
Xi Jinping out before 2027
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$10.5M
Identifier
0xa467b14d...43b7
Jun 23, 2026, 5:32 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$4K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$10.5M
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xa467b14d…43b7
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10.5M
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Xi Jinping out before 2027 6¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.