Bitcoin price action: ETF inflows push near-term odds higher
Bitcoin’s Aug 7, 2026 settlement price saw a sharp 5¢ move on the $63,000 tranche, driven by the largest single-day ETF net inflow in three weeks. The monthly trimmed mean above $65,000 now trades at 73¢, reflecting renewed bullish sentiment.
Key takeaways
- 01
Bitcoin’s Aug 7, 2026 settlement price saw a sharp 5¢ move on the $63,000 tranche, driven by the largest single-day ETF net inflow in three weeks.
- 02
The monthly trimmed mean above $65,000 now trades at 73¢, reflecting renewed bullish sentiment.
- 03
The KXBTCD-26AUG0717-T62 contract (Bitcoin price between $57,000 and $62,999 on Aug 7) moved from 46¢ to 51¢ on volume of 40,503, corresponding to a +0.51% change in the underlying spot price.
Full analysis
The KXBTCD-26AUG0717-T62 contract (Bitcoin price between $57,000 and $62,999 on Aug 7) moved from 46¢ to 51¢ on volume of 40,503, corresponding to a +0.51% change in the underlying spot price. The catalyst was a $450 million net inflow into the IBIT ETF (traditional market ticker IBIT, down 2.84% today but that reflects a different date). Traders are now pricing a 63% chance of BTC being above $57,000 (KXBTCD-26AUG0717-T61) and a 73% chance the August 31 trimmed mean stays above $65,000 (KXBTCMAXMON).
The most liquid contract in this category is the $65,000 monthly trim (73¢, spread 1¢), which offers a clean directional bet on the month‑end level. The high‑probability bins around $85,000 (KXBTCD-26AUG0717-T59) have seen volume collapse, indicating a narrowing of expectations to a $57,000–$65,000 range.
Key secondary markets: KXBTC2026200 (3¢ chance of $200k by Jan 2027) and KXBTC50VS100 (coin toss which threshold hits first). If ETF momentum persists, the $65,000 floor could become a springboard toward the $80,000 ceiling (currently at 1¢).
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