Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 95 billion and 104.9 billion
Leader sits at 89% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 170 billion
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
119.6 billion to 119.9 bil
Spread
83pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 28, 2027
234 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will US trade deficit for 2026
Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 119.6 billion and 119.9 billion?: 119.6 billion to 119.9 billion
KXTRADEDEFICIT-27FEB28-B119.75
Will US trade deficit for 2026 be above 170 billion?: Above 170 billion
KXTRADEDEFICIT-27FEB28-T170
Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 95 billion and 104.9 billion?: 95 billion to 104.9 billion
KXTRADEDEFICIT-27FEB28-B99.95
Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 65 billion and 74.9 billion?: 65 billion to 74.9 billion
KXTRADEDEFICIT-27FEB28-B69.95
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that the US trade deficit will exceed $170 billion in 2026, based on current trading patterns and economic conditions. The high price suggests traders believe the deficit is more likely to be larger rather than smaller or moderate. Two main factors are driving this outlook: continued consumer demand for imports relative to export growth, and the trajectory of the dollar's exchange rate, which affects the competitiveness of US goods abroad. The resolution will depend on final 2026 trade data released by the Census Bureau in early 2027, but monthly trade reports throughout the year will provide early signals about whether the deficit is tracking toward larger or smaller annual totals. Exchange rate movements, global demand conditions, and trade policy changes over the remaining months of 2026 represent the key uncertainties that could shift this probability meaningfully.
- ›Monthly trade deficits through December 2026 will be published by the Census Bureau, providing progressive clarity on the annual deficit trajectory
- ›The US-China trade relationship and any tariff adjustments in 2026 directly affect import volumes and pricing
- ›The strength of the US dollar relative to major trading partners influences export competitiveness and import costs
- ›Consumer spending patterns and domestic demand relative to historical averages will determine import volumes
- ›Global economic growth rates in key US trading partners affect demand for American exports
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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