Bitcoin Surges Toward $80K — April Strike Now a Coin Flip

Bitcoin is making a serious run at $80,000 with prediction markets repricing rapidly today. The most significant move is on Polymarket's 'What price will Bitcoin hit in April?: ↑ 80,000' (0x06a804e8bd1a539829), which jumped 8¢ to 49¢ — now essentially a coin flip. This is the largest single-day move in any high-volume Bitcoin contract today.

Simultaneously, the ↓$75,000 downside contract (0xa05c869fcd6edef0b6) crashed 16¢ to 35¢, representing the biggest downside move in the data. When both the upside target rises AND the downside hedge falls sharply, it confirms directional momentum, not just noise.

The ↑$82,500 contract (0x8a26b66b6bdb6b12af) also ticked up 3¢ to 15¢, showing bulls are pushing into higher strikes. Meanwhile, Kalshi's daily BTC price contract (KXBTCD-26APR2614-T77) settled at 93¢, suggesting current price is comfortably above $77k.

For traders: the 49¢ ↑$80k contract is the most liquid and most interesting. If BTC breaks $80k, this resolves YES and the current 49¢ entry yields roughly 2x. If you're bearish on the rally, the ↓$75k contract at 35¢ offers value if you think a pullback is imminent.

Longer-dated contracts show BTC ↑$100k for 2026 at 41¢, and ↓$50k at 43¢ — the market pricing BTC staying in a $50k-$100k range through year-end. The Kalshi monthly BTC trimmed mean above $82,500 (KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AP) sits at only 14¢, suggesting most of the $80k move is near-term speculation rather than sustained conviction.