Will Kirsten Gillibrand vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$101
12 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
146 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Mark Warner vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Cluster 2
Will Josh Hawley vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Cluster 3
Will Angela Alsobrooks vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Cluster 4
Will Andy Kim vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Cluster 5
Will Catherine Cortez Masto vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Cluster 6
Will Jerry Moran vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Cluster 7
Will Kirsten Gillibrand vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Cluster 8
Will Lisa Blunt Rochester vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Cluster 9
Will Mike Lee vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Cluster 10
Will Ruben Gallego vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Cluster 11
Will Rand Paul vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Cluster 12
Will Raphael Warnock vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Analysis
This measure tracks the likelihood that Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) will vote yes on a crypto market structure bill as specifically defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE. At 51%, the market implies essentially even odds with slight lean toward support. Gillibrand's vote depends on the bill's specific provisions, particularly how it balances regulatory oversight with industry preferences, and whether it aligns with her broader financial-services positions. Democratic senators show mixed positions on crypto legislation—ranging from strong support (Jerry Moran at 65%) to skepticism (Andy Kim at 10%)—suggesting the bill's text and political context will prove decisive. Key catalysts include the bill's formal introduction in Congress, committee markups that may reveal Gillibrand's stance through statements or amendments, and any public positions she takes on crypto regulation before a floor vote.
- ›Gillibrand's historical voting pattern on financial regulation and technology oversight bills
- ›The specific regulatory provisions in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE, particularly around consumer protections versus industry flexibility
- ›Whether the bill receives bipartisan support or emerges as partisan, influencing New York Democratic positioning
- ›Any prior public statements or committee testimony from Gillibrand on cryptocurrency market structure
- ›The timing and political context of a floor vote relative to broader legislative priorities in Congress
What moved the line
- Aug 4Mike Lee↓22pp44→22¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Jerry Moran↓11pp50→39¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Jerry Moran↓8pp25→17¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Mark Warner↓7pp23→16¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Catherine Cortez Masto↓7pp29→22¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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