Will Kirsten Gillibrand vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$676
10 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
100 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Josh Hawley vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Cluster 2
Will Ruben Gallego vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Cluster 3
Will Mark Warner vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Cluster 4
Will Angela Alsobrooks vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Cluster 5
Will Catherine Cortez Masto vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Cluster 6
Will Raphael Warnock vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Cluster 7
Will Lisa Blunt Rochester vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Cluster 8
Will Kirsten Gillibrand vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Cluster 9
Will Rand Paul vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Cluster 10
Will Mike Lee vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Analysis
This question asks whether Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York will vote for a comprehensive crypto market structure bill. At 14%, the market suggests this outcome is unlikely but not impossible. Gillibrand has historically been cautious on crypto regulation, generally aligning with consumer protection concerns over industry expansion. Her vote would depend on the specific bill's provisions—particularly how it balances regulatory clarity with consumer safeguards. The probability could shift significantly based on the final bill text and floor vote timeline in Congress. Comparable senators show mixed support: Mike Lee at 20% suggests some Republican openness, while Mark Warner at 3% reflects skepticism from finance-minded Democrats. The key catalyst is whether a final bill reaches floor consideration in the Senate and its detailed language on custody, consumer protection, and spot market frameworks.
- ›Gillibrand's past voting record shows skepticism toward crypto deregulation and preference for consumer protection frameworks over industry-friendly provisions
- ›The specific bill language on consumer safeguards, custody rules, and spot market access would directly influence her decision calculus
- ›Comparable Democratic senators like Mark Warner (3%) show low support, while Republicans like Mike Lee (20%) show higher support, suggesting partisan divides may shape her position
- ›A floor vote requires passage through committee first, meaning bill negotiation and amendment phases remain incomplete variables
- ›The 14% probability implies markets assess her as unlikely to support even a moderate structure bill, suggesting high bar for provisions she would accept
What moved the line
- Sep 17Catherine Cortez Masto↓15pp17→2¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Mike Lee↓15pp20→5¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Angela Alsobrooks↓13pp17→4¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Lisa Blunt Rochester↓13pp16→3¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Ruben Gallego↓10pp15→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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