MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Odds Fall Sharply, BTC Price Target Markets Still Bearish
The market for MicroStrategy selling any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026 dropped 12¢ to 31¢, a significant move. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin $150k target by June 2026 remains at 1¢ with over 5.8 million volume, reflecting deep skepticism of a massive rally.
Key takeaways
- 01
The market for MicroStrategy selling any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026 dropped 12¢ to 31¢, a significant move.
- 02
Meanwhile, the Bitcoin $150k target by June 2026 remains at 1¢ with over 5.8 million volume, reflecting deep skepticism of a massive rally.
- 03
In Bitcoin-related prediction markets, the most notable move was in Polymarket's “MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?: May 31, 2026” contract (ID: 0x3733a1b647e7364095), which fell 12¢ from 43¢ to 31¢.
Full analysis
In Bitcoin-related prediction markets, the most notable move was in Polymarket's “MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?: May 31, 2026” contract (ID: 0x3733a1b647e7364095), which fell 12¢ from 43¢ to 31¢. This indicates traders now believe MicroStrategy is less likely to sell its Bitcoin holdings in the near term. The volume was 149,380. In contrast, the June 30 contract (ID: 0x8e7a03cb1970e2ad65) actually rose 9¢ to 70¢, suggesting a shift in expectation toward a later sale. This divergence is interesting: near-term sale probability collapsed, but longer-term sale probability rose.
Meanwhile, the highest volume Bitcoin contract – “When will Bitcoin hit $150k?: by June 30, 2026” (ID: 0xa0f4c4924ea1a8b410) – continues to trade at 1¢ with 5.8 million volume. The market is nearly unanimous that BTC will not reach $150k by June 2026. A similar market for $100k by July 1 (Kalshi's KXBTCMAX100) trades at 17¢, indicating some chance of a more modest but still significant rally. The “Bitcoin all time high by June 30” (P | 0x337ed4a919995ef9ba) is at 3¢.
Key contracts to watch: - P | 0x3733a1b647e7364095 (MSTR sells by May 31) – 31¢, down 12¢ - P | 0x8e7a03cb1970e2ad65 (MSTR sells by June 30) – 70¢, up 9¢ - P | 0xa0f4c4924ea1a8b410 (BTC $150k by June) – 1¢, high volume - K | KXBTCMAX100 (BTC > $100k by July) – 17¢ - P | 0x337ed4a919995ef9ba (BTC all-time high by June 30) – 3¢
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