MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Probability Volatile – May 31 Contract Drops 5¢
The likelihood that MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31 fell 5¢ to 56¢, while the June 30 contract rose 2¢ to 76¢. Traders are navigating conflicting signals about the company's Bitcoin strategy.
Key takeaways
- 01
The likelihood that MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31 fell 5¢ to 56¢, while the June 30 contract rose 2¢ to 76¢.
- 02
Traders are navigating conflicting signals about the company's Bitcoin strategy.
- 03
Bitcoin-focused markets saw significant movement in MicroStrategy-related contracts.
Full analysis
Bitcoin-focused markets saw significant movement in MicroStrategy-related contracts. The Polymarket 'MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31' contract (`0x3733a1b647e7364095`) dropped 5¢ to 56¢ on volume of 492,563, suggesting growing confidence that the company will hold through the near term. However, the June 30 contract (`0x8e7a03cb1970e2ad65`) rose 2¢ to 76¢, indicating a belief that a sale may occur later. This creates a 20¢ spread between the two dates, representing a steep time premium. The flagship 'Bitcoin hits $150k by June 30' contract (`0xa0f4c4924ea1a8b410`) remains at 1¢ but has the highest volume of any market at 5.8M, driven by speculative interest. The BTC trimmed mean for May 31 above $85k is at 23¢ (`KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26MA`), and above $90k at 5¢. Traders should also watch the 'Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026' contract at 9¢ (`0x3b0107a80edd066fe9`). Key contracts: `0x3733a1b647e7364095` (MSTR sell by May 31), `0x8e7a03cb1970e2ad65` (MSTR sell by June 30), `KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26MA` (BTC > $85k end of May).
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