Oil prices slip 1.19% despite high geopolitical tension
USO dropped to $118.27, reflecting near-term supply fears easing. Prediction markets show only 24% chance of WTI hitting $115 by year-end. Traders should watch KXWTIMAX for potential energy sector volatility.
Key takeaways
- 01
USO dropped to $118.27, reflecting near-term supply fears easing.
- 02
Prediction markets show only 24% chance of WTI hitting $115 by year-end.
- 03
Traders should watch KXWTIMAX for potential energy sector volatility.
Full analysis
Oil markets are down modestly today, with USO falling 1.19% to $118.27. The decline comes despite ongoing uncertainties around Iranian nuclear negotiations and OPEC+ decisions. The highest-volume oil prediction market, KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T11 (Will WTI exceed $115 by Dec 31, 2026), sits at 24¢, indicating limited conviction in a sharp rally. Another key contract is KXWTIMAX-26AUG31-T92 (16¢ for $92 by end of August), which shows near-term expectations are subdued. For traders, the oil complex remains range-bound; any supply disruption could trigger rapid repricing. Watch KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT for geopolitical catalysts. The 2¢ probability of a new Iran nuclear deal this year suggests the market sees low chance of sanctions relief adding supply.
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