Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in June 2026

The yield curve displays a pronounced steepening pattern, with the shortest tenor (33 days to June 26) showing highly fragmented probabilities ranging from 1% to 70%, while longer tenors exhibit more cohesive clustering. The June bucket lacks a clear consensus, but the 62-day July tenor shows stronger conviction with probabilities concentrated in the 60-99% range for higher outcomes and 2-13% for lower outcomes. The cheapest YES probabilities across all tenors appear in the June bucket at 1%, though the August and September tenors show the most consistent floor at 4-5% for their lowest-probability markets. The curve steepens meaningfully from June to July, then gradually flattens through August and September, with the September bucket (125 days) displaying the widest dispersion, ranging from 4% to 96%. This steepening structure suggests the market expects resolution or clarification of the underlying event to occur relatively soon, with conviction building between the June and July tenors. The sharp increase in probabilities from June's scattered 1-70% range to July's dominant 60-99% cluster indicates that traders anticipate either a definitive outcome or significant information arrival within the next month. The subsequent flattening from August onward, combined with persistent tail probabilities of 4-5% in later tenors, implies the market views the event as increasingly likely to resolve in the near term rather than remaining uncertain through September. The fragmentation in June contrasts sharply with the tighter clustering in July-September, suggesting current uncertainty that the market expects to dissipate quickly.