SimpleFunctions
kalshiOutcome slate133 markets

Will Alannah and Bryce win Love Island USA Season 8

event base · KXLIUSACOUPLE

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 09 Jul 2026Methodology
24h volume
$1.5M
Constituents
133
Distinct tenors
1
Top P(YES)
89.0%
Trinity and Bryce

Outcome probabilities

133 contracts at one resolution date

Analysis

The yield curve presents a dramatically flat structure across all 133 constituent markets, with virtually every contract trading at a 1.0% YES probability at the 60-day tenor through August 26, 2031. The only meaningful deviation occurs in the ANCAR market, which trades at 3.0% YES—a modest but notable outlier. Trading volume is heavily concentrated in just three markets: ANCAR dominates with $115,032.82 in 24-hour volume, while ANKC ($5,683.81) and ANZA ($1,402.77) show minimal secondary activity. The remaining 130 markets exhibit either zero or negligible volume, indicating extremely thin liquidity across the broader event family. This flat, near-zero probability structure across all tenors suggests the market assigns minimal near-term probability to the event occurring within the 60-day window. The flatness of this curve, combined with the uniformly depressed probability levels, indicates the market views the event as either highly unlikely to occur in the near term or structurally improbable. The absence of any upward slope toward longer tenors—which would typically signal growing conviction about eventual occurrence—instead suggests persistent skepticism regardless of time horizon. The concentration of volume in ANCAR, which trades at triple the baseline probability, may reflect either a specific catalyst or information advantage in that particular market segment, but this remains an isolated signal against the overwhelming consensus embedded in the flat, low-probability structure. The market is currently pricing this event family as a tail-risk scenario with minimal expected probability of realization.

Generated 7/9/2026 · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5

Constituent markets

133 kalshi contracts

MarketTenorP(YES)Vol 24h
Will Trinity and Bryce win Love Island USA Season 8?: Trinity and Bryce8w89.0%$308.3K
Will Aniya and Carl win Love Island USA Season 8?: Aniya and Carl8w10.0%$573.2K
Will Melanie and Sincere win Love Island USA Season 8?: Melanie and Sincere8w2.0%$414.0K
Will Alannah and Bryce win Love Island USA Season 8?: Alannah and Bryce8w1.0%$0
Will Alannah and Caleb win Love Island USA Season 8?: Alannah and Caleb8w1.0%$0
Will Alannah and Carl win Love Island USA Season 8?: Alannah and Carl8w1.0%$0
Will Alannah and Chay win Love Island USA Season 8?: Alannah and Chay8w1.0%$111
Will Alannah and Corey win Love Island USA Season 8?: Alannah and Corey8w1.0%$0
Will Alannah and Dylan win Love Island USA Season 8?: Alannah and Dylan8w1.0%$0
Will Alannah and Gal win Love Island USA Season 8?: Alannah and Gal8w1.0%$0
Will Alannah and Ronnie win Love Island USA Season 8?: Alannah and Ronnie8w1.0%$0
Will Alannah and Sincere win Love Island USA Season 8?: Alannah and Sincere8w1.0%$0
Will Alannah and Zach win Love Island USA Season 8?: Alannah and Zach8w1.0%$0
Will Amora and Caleb win Love Island USA Season 8?: Amora and Caleb8w1.0%$0
Will Amora and Carl win Love Island USA Season 8?: Amora and Carl8w1.0%$0
Will Amora and Chay win Love Island USA Season 8?: Amora and Chay8w1.0%$0
Will Amora and Corey win Love Island USA Season 8?: Amora and Corey8w1.0%$0
Will Amora and Gal win Love Island USA Season 8?: Amora and Gal8w1.0%$0
Will Amora and KC win Love Island USA Season 8?: Amora and KC8w1.0%$0
Will Amora and Sincere win Love Island USA Season 8?: Amora and Sincere8w1.0%$0
Will Aniya and Bryce win Love Island USA Season 8?: Aniya and Bryce8w1.0%$0
Will Aniya and Caleb win Love Island USA Season 8?: Aniya and Caleb8w1.0%$0
Will Aniya and Chay win Love Island USA Season 8?: Aniya and Chay8w1.0%$0
Will Aniya and Corbin win Love Island USA Season 8?: Aniya and Corbin8w1.0%$0
Will Aniya and Corey win Love Island USA Season 8?: Aniya and Corey8w1.0%$0
Will Aniya and Gabriel win Love Island USA Season 8?: Aniya and Gabriel8w1.0%$0
Will Aniya and Gal win Love Island USA Season 8?: Aniya and Gal8w1.0%$0
Will Aniya and KC win Love Island USA Season 8?: Aniya and KC8w1.0%$7
Will Aniya and Ronnie win Love Island USA Season 8?: Aniya and Ronnie8w1.0%$0
Will Aniya and Sean win Love Island USA Season 8?: Aniya and Sean8w1.0%$0
Will Aniya and Sincere win Love Island USA Season 8?: Aniya and Sincere8w1.0%$1.1K
Will Aniya and Zach win Love Island USA Season 8?: Aniya and Zach8w1.0%$2.5K
Will Beatriz and Bryce win Love Island USA Season 8?: Beatriz and Bryce8w1.0%$935
Will Beatriz and Caleb win Love Island USA Season 8?: Beatriz and Caleb8w1.0%$0
Will Beatriz and Corbin win Love Island USA Season 8?: Beatriz and Corbin8w1.0%$0
Will Beatriz and Gabriel win Love Island USA Season 8?: Beatriz and Gabriel8w1.0%$0
Will Beatriz and KC win Love Island USA Season 8?: Beatriz and KC8w1.0%$0
Will Beatriz and Sean win Love Island USA Season 8?: Beatriz and Sean8w1.0%$1
Will Beatriz and Sincere win Love Island USA Season 8?: Beatriz and Sincere8w1.0%$0
Will Beatriz and Zach win Love Island USA Season 8?: Beatriz and Zach8w1.0%$0
Will Jaiden and Bryce win Love Island USA Season 8?: Jaiden and Bryce8w1.0%$0
Will Jaiden and Caleb win Love Island USA Season 8?: Jaiden and Caleb8w1.0%$0
Will Jaiden and Carl win Love Island USA Season 8?: Jaiden and Carl8w1.0%$0
Will Jaiden and Corbin win Love Island USA Season 8?: Jaiden and Corbin8w1.0%$0
Will Jaiden and Gal win Love Island USA Season 8?: Jaiden and Gal8w1.0%$0
Will Jaiden and Zach win Love Island USA Season 8?: Jaiden and Zach8w1.0%$0
Will Jen and Bryce win Love Island USA Season 8?: Jen and Bryce8w1.0%$0
Will Jen and Caleb win Love Island USA Season 8?: Jen and Caleb8w1.0%$0
Will Jen and Carl win Love Island USA Season 8?: Jen and Carl8w1.0%$0
Will Jen and Chay win Love Island USA Season 8?: Jen and Chay8w1.0%$0
Will Jen and Corbin win Love Island USA Season 8?: Jen and Corbin8w1.0%$0
Will Jen and Dylan win Love Island USA Season 8?: Jen and Dylan8w1.0%$0
Will Jen and Gabriel win Love Island USA Season 8?: Jen and Gabriel8w1.0%$0
Will Jen and Gal win Love Island USA Season 8?: Jen and Gal8w1.0%$0
Will Jen and KC win Love Island USA Season 8?: Jen and KC8w1.0%$0
Will Jen and Ronnie win Love Island USA Season 8?: Jen and Ronnie8w1.0%$0
Will Jen and Sincere win Love Island USA Season 8?: Jen and Sincere8w1.0%$0
Will Jen and Zach win Love Island USA Season 8?: Jen and Zach8w1.0%$0
Will Kayda and Bryce win Love Island USA Season 8?: Kayda and Bryce8w1.0%$0
Will Kayda and Caleb win Love Island USA Season 8?: Kayda and Caleb8w1.0%$0
Will Kayda and Carl win Love Island USA Season 8?: Kayda and Carl8w1.0%$0
Will Kayda and Chay win Love Island USA Season 8?: Kayda and Chay8w1.0%$0
Will Kayda and Corbin win Love Island USA Season 8?: Kayda and Corbin8w1.0%$0
Will Kayda and Corey win Love Island USA Season 8?: Kayda and Corey8w1.0%$0
Will Kayda and Dylan win Love Island USA Season 8?: Kayda and Dylan8w1.0%$0
Will Kayda and Gabriel win Love Island USA Season 8?: Kayda and Gabriel8w1.0%$0
Will Kayda and KC win Love Island USA Season 8?: Kayda and KC8w1.0%$0
Will Kayda and Ronnie win Love Island USA Season 8?: Kayda and Ronnie8w1.0%$0
Will Kayda and Sean win Love Island USA Season 8?: Kayda and Sean8w1.0%$0
Will Kayda and Sincere win Love Island USA Season 8?: Kayda and Sincere8w1.0%$0
Will Kayda and Zach win Love Island USA Season 8?: Kayda and Zach8w1.0%$125.8K
Will Kenzie and Bryce win Love Island USA Season 8?: Kenzie and Bryce8w1.0%$0
Will Kenzie and Caleb win Love Island USA Season 8?: Kenzie and Caleb8w1.0%$0
Will Kenzie and Chay win Love Island USA Season 8?: Kenzie and Chay8w1.0%$0
Will Kenzie and Corbin win Love Island USA Season 8?: Kenzie and Corbin8w1.0%$5
Will Kenzie and Corey win Love Island USA Season 8?: Kenzie and Corey8w1.0%$0
Will Kenzie and Dylan win Love Island USA Season 8?: Kenzie and Dylan8w1.0%$605
Will Kenzie and Gabriel win Love Island USA Season 8?: Kenzie and Gabriel8w1.0%$0
Will Kenzie and Gal win Love Island USA Season 8?: Kenzie and Gal8w1.0%$0
Will Kenzie and KC win Love Island USA Season 8?: Kenzie and KC8w1.0%$0
Showing top 80 by P(YES) of 133 constituents.

How to read this page

An outcome slate is a set of mutually-exclusive contracts that all settle on the same date. Their YES probabilities form a distribution over which outcome the market expects. Probabilities should roughly sum to 100% minus the venue’s overround.

Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KXLIUSACOUPLE on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 06:23:39 GMT.