Will Shohei Ohtani win NL MVP

The prediction market exhibits a completely flat yield curve, with all 53 constituent markets sharing an identical tenor of 208 days to resolution. Within this single tenor bucket, probabilities display extreme dispersion rather than a traditional term structure. The dominant outcome commands 64.0% YES probability (SOHT), while 41 of the 53 markets cluster at the 1.0% floor, representing the cheapest YES probabilities available. Secondary outcomes occupy the middle ground: MOLS at 12.0%, ECRU and KSCH at 3.0%, and several markets at 2.0% and 4.0%. This distribution is not a curve but rather a probability mass function across mutually exclusive or near-mutually exclusive outcomes within a single event family. The flat tenor structure combined with this dispersed probability landscape suggests the market views the event as a single-point resolution rather than a process unfolding over time. Since all markets resolve simultaneously at 208 days, traders are not pricing different timing scenarios but rather different categorical outcomes of a single event. The concentration of capital in SOHT (64.0%) indicates strong consensus around one primary outcome, while the long tail of 1.0% probabilities reflects either genuine uncertainty about low-probability alternatives or the market's floor pricing convention. The modest trading volumes across most markets, with notable exceptions in KTUC, NHOE, JWAL, and PSKE, suggest that liquidity concentrates around the most contested outcomes rather than being distributed across the probability spectrum.