Seattle wins by over 20.5 points

The yield curve displays a pronounced flat-to-slightly-inverted structure across the three tenor buckets, with the shortest-dated markets (24 days) and intermediate markets (25 days) showing nearly identical probability distributions, while the longest-dated bucket (27 days) exhibits marginally lower probabilities. Within the 24-day tenor, the cheapest YES probabilities cluster at the extreme tails: NE10, NE11, SF10, and SF11 all trade at 3-5%, representing the lowest conviction outcomes. The intermediate 25-day bucket mirrors this pattern with SF10, SF11, SF14, and SF15 similarly priced at 3-5%. The 27-day markets show comparable low-probability outcomes at 3%, suggesting minimal term premium across the curve. The most liquid markets—those with substantial 24-hour volume—concentrate around 35-60% probabilities (SEA2, SEA3, SEA4, LAR2, LAR3, LAR4), indicating these represent the modal outcomes the market expects. The flattening curve structure implies the market perceives the event resolution as imminent and largely predetermined, with minimal expectation of probability shifts over the next three days. The absence of meaningful steepening suggests low uncertainty about timing—outcomes priced at 60% today remain similarly priced at 25 days out, indicating the market has already incorporated its view of event likelihood. The concentration of trading volume in mid-range probabilities (35-60%) rather than tail outcomes suggests moderate conviction in central scenarios rather than extreme outcomes. The market is essentially saying the event's resolution probability is largely settled now, with little expected evolution in the near term.