SimpleFunctions
kalshiYield curve96 markets

The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score

event base · KXRT

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 09 Jul 2026Methodology
24h volume
$48.5K
Constituents
96
Distinct tenors
5
8d – 5mo
Avg P(YES)
62.5%

Term structure

YES probability across 5 tenors

25%50%75%8d7w12w4mo5mo
τ days →P(YES) on left axis

Analysis

The yield curve displays a striking inverted structure across the 4-day tenor, with the cheapest YES probabilities concentrated in the mid-range strike prices rather than at the extremes. The EVI subset shows a steep cliff from 99.0% probability at strikes 45-60 down to 87.0% at 70, then collapsing to just 50.0% at the 75 strike before recovering slightly to 9.0% at 80. The MOA subset exhibits even more dramatic compression, maintaining 87-99.0% probabilities through the 30 strike, then plummeting to 27.0% at 32, 40.0% at 35, and 8.0% at 40 before dropping to 1.0% across all higher strikes. The INV subset similarly shows high conviction above 85.0% through the 80 strike, then collapsing to 8.0% at 96. This inverted shape contrasts sharply with the 11-day ODY tenor, which maintains a more gradual decline from 99.0% at lower strikes to 82.0% at 85, suggesting a smoother probability distribution over the longer horizon. The market's current pricing reveals extreme near-term uncertainty concentrated around specific strike levels, particularly in the 32-40 range for MOA and 70-80 for EVI. The high trading volumes at these transition points—notably $107.5M at MOA-45 and $130.8M at MOA-50—indicate intense disagreement about whether outcomes will fall within or outside these bands. The inverted curve structure implies the market expects resolution to occur within a narrow, defined range rather than at the extremes, with the 11-day ODY

Generated 7/9/2026 · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5

Constituent markets

96 kalshi contracts

MarketTenorP(YES)Vol 24h
The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 508d99.0%$0
The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 558d99.0%$94
The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 608d99.0%$487
Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 52w99.0%$0
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 303w99.0%$0
The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 458d98.0%$518
The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 708d98.0%$2.0K
Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 102w98.0%$0
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 553w98.0%$0
The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 658d97.0%$105
Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 202w97.0%$0
Tony Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 454w97.0%$300
Dune: Part Three Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 455mo97.0%$0
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 353w96.0%$0
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 403w96.0%$0
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 453w96.0%$0
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 503w96.0%$0
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 603w96.0%$0
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 653w96.0%$0
Tony Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 504w96.0%$0
The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 758d95.0%$873
Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 152w95.0%$0
Dune: Part Three Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 605mo95.0%$38
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 703w94.0%$29
Tony Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 604w94.0%$0
Avengers: Doomsday Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 455mo94.0%$0
Dune: Part Three Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 505mo94.0%$133
Dune: Part Three Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 555mo94.0%$0
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 753w93.0%$128
Tony Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 554w93.0%$20
Dune: Part Three Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 655mo92.0%$0
The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 808d91.0%$3.7K
Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 252w91.0%$0
Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 302w91.0%$80
Avengers: Doomsday Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 505mo91.0%$0
Dune: Part Three Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 705mo91.0%$0
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 803w89.0%$339
Avengers: Doomsday Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 555mo89.0%$0
Tony Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 654w88.0%$0
Avengers: Doomsday Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 605mo87.0%$0
Dune: Part Three Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 755mo87.0%$0
Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 352w86.0%$2
The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 858d85.0%$1.0K
Avengers: Doomsday Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 655mo85.0%$0
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 853w83.0%$683
Tony Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 704w81.0%$12
Dune: Part Three Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 805mo81.0%$0
Avengers: Doomsday Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 705mo77.0%$0
Tony Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 754w75.0%$13
Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 402w74.0%$42
Dune: Part Three Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 855mo74.0%$29
The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 878d73.0%$1.4K
Avengers: Doomsday Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 755mo69.0%$0
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 903w68.0%$1.8K
One Night Only Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 454w67.0%$364
Tony Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 804w64.0%$0
Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 452w62.0%$73
Avengers: Doomsday Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 805mo60.0%$508
The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 908d59.0%$7.3K
One Night Only Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 504w59.0%$2.5K
Dune: Part Three Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 905mo58.0%$322
Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 502w55.0%$360
Tony Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 854w51.0%$270
One Night Only Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 554w48.0%$396
Avengers: Doomsday Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 855mo46.0%$226
The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 928d41.0%$2.6K
Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 552w41.0%$303
Tony Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 904w40.0%$325
One Night Only Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 604w39.0%$2.7K
Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 602w30.0%$101
Super Troopers 3 Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 454w30.0%$480
One Night Only Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 654w28.0%$3.4K
Avengers: Doomsday Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 905mo27.0%$349
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 953w25.0%$1.4K
Super Troopers 3 Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 504w21.0%$58
Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 652w20.0%$7
One Night Only Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 704w20.0%$932
The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 958d15.0%$4.7K
Super Troopers 3 Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 554w15.0%$195
One Night Only Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 754w14.0%$332
Showing top 80 by P(YES) of 96 constituents.

Browse this series

Movie Rotten Tomatoes Score Markets
Collection view — every live contract in this series, sorted by 24h volume. Distinct intent from this term-structure page.

How to read this page

A term structure plots the implied YES probability of each constituent market against its days-to-resolution. Steepening upward = the market prices the event as becoming more likely with time. Flat = stable expectations. Inverted = a near-term catalyst raises odds early then they fade.

Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KXRT on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 06:23:29 GMT.