SimpleFunctions
kalshiYield curve122 markets

Practical Magic 2 Rotten Tomatoes score

event base · KXRT

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 30 Aug 2026Methodology
24h volume
$13.5K
Constituents
122
Distinct tenors
6
2w – 4mo
Avg P(YES)
64.2%

Term structure

YES probability across 6 tenors

25%50%75%2w6w9w13w4mo
τ days →P(YES) on left axis

Analysis

The yield curve displays a pronounced downward slope across all three tenor buckets, with the shortest-dated 15-day contracts commanding the highest YES probabilities and longer-dated contracts showing substantially lower conviction. At the 15-day tenor, the UPR contract family ranges from 87% (45 strike) down to 11% (90 strike), while the PRA family spans 69% to 4%, establishing a floor of 4% YES probability at the shortest horizon. The 22-day tenor contracts show a modest compression, with WEI and RES families clustering in the 37-99% range, while the longest-dated 29-day contracts exhibit the most severe probability decay, particularly in the HEA family where probabilities collapse from 94% (45 strike) to just 8% (90 strike). The cheapest YES probabilities across all tenors appear in the 90-strike contracts at the 29-day tenor, where HEA-90 trades at 8% and PRI-90 at 28%. This steeply inverted curve structure suggests the market expects the underlying event to resolve decisively within the immediate 15-day window, with confidence eroding sharply as time extends. The dramatic probability cliff between the 15-day and 29-day tenors—particularly visible in how UPR-90 (11%) compares to PRI-90 (28%) and HEA-90 (8%)—indicates that market participants view the event as either imminent or unlikely to occur at all, rather than distributed across the full month. The high baseline probabilities at shorter tenors combined with steep decay suggests the market is pricing in a near-term catalyst or deadline, with substantially diminished conviction about outcomes beyond the 22-day

Generated 8/30/2026 · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5

Constituent markets

122 kalshi contracts

MarketTenorP(YES)Vol 24h
The Weight Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 453w99.0%$0
The Weight Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 503w99.0%$0
The Weight Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 553w99.0%$0
The Weight Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 603w99.0%$0
The Weight Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 653w99.0%$0
Dune: Part Three Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 454mo98.0%$201
Dune: Part Three Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 504mo98.0%$201
Dune: Part Three Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 554mo97.0%$201
Dune: Part Three Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 654mo97.0%$691
Resident Evil Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 453w96.0%$21
Primetime Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 504w96.0%$0
Dune: Part Three Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 604mo96.0%$195
Resident Evil Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 503w95.0%$0
Resident Evil Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 553w95.0%$0
The Weight Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 703w95.0%$0
Digger Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 455w95.0%$0
Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 454w94.0%$0
Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 504w94.0%$0
Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 554w94.0%$0
Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 604w94.0%$0
Primetime Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 454w94.0%$0
Primetime Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 554w94.0%$0
Digger Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 505w94.0%$0
Avengers: Doomsday Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 454mo94.0%$8
Dune: Part Three Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 704mo94.0%$501
Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 654w93.0%$0
Heart of the Beast Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 454w93.0%$0
Primetime Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 604w93.0%$0
Avengers: Doomsday Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 504mo93.0%$0
Resident Evil Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 603w92.0%$1
The Weight Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 753w92.0%$749
Primetime Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 654w91.0%$0
Digger Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 555w91.0%$0
Clayface Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 458w91.0%$1
Avengers: Doomsday Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 604mo91.0%$0
Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 704w90.0%$0
Primetime Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 704w90.0%$0
Avengers: Doomsday Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 554mo90.0%$0
Dune: Part Three Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 754mo90.0%$6
Resident Evil Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 653w89.0%$131
The Weight Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 803w88.0%$0
Avengers: Doomsday Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 654mo88.0%$0
Dune: Part Three Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 804mo88.0%$500
Digger Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 605w87.0%$91
Heart of the Beast Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 504w86.0%$3
Clayface Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 508w85.0%$1
Avengers: Doomsday Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 704mo85.0%$0
The Uprising Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 452w84.0%$137
Resident Evil Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 703w84.0%$15
The Uprising Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 502w83.0%$156
The Weight Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 853w82.0%$620
Verity Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 455w82.0%$115
Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 754w81.0%$0
Resident Evil Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 753w80.0%$561
Digger Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 655w79.0%$40
Heart of the Beast Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 554w78.0%$4
Clayface Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 558w77.0%$1
Avengers: Doomsday Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 754mo77.0%$5
Clayface Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 608w76.0%$1
The Uprising Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 552w75.0%$0
Dune: Part Three Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 854mo75.0%$0
Primetime Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 754w73.0%$0
Verity Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 505w73.0%$177
Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 804w72.0%$0
Practical Magic 2 Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 452w70.0%$0
Heart of the Beast Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 604w70.0%$6
Resident Evil Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 803w69.0%$305
Digger Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 705w67.0%$273
Verity Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 555w67.0%$91
Clayface Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 658w67.0%$1
The Uprising Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 602w66.0%$0
Avengers: Doomsday Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 804mo66.0%$150
Heart of the Beast Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 654w64.0%$25
Primetime Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 804w64.0%$22
Clayface Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 708w64.0%$2
Practical Magic 2 Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 502w60.0%$176
The Uprising Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 652w59.0%$26
Dune: Part Three Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 904mo58.0%$116
The Weight Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 903w55.0%$642
Verity Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 605w55.0%$5
Showing top 80 by P(YES) of 122 constituents.

Browse this series

Movie Rotten Tomatoes Score Markets
Collection view — every live contract in this series, sorted by 24h volume. Distinct intent from this term-structure page.

How to read this page

A term structure plots the implied YES probability of each constituent market against its days-to-resolution. Steepening upward = the market prices the event as becoming more likely with time. Flat = stable expectations. Inverted = a near-term catalyst raises odds early then they fade.

Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KXRT on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: Sun, 30 Aug 2026 06:25:00 GMT.