Will France win the 2nd Half

The yield curve displays a notably flat structure across the three tenor buckets, with the 15-day bucket showing the lowest YES probabilities overall. At tau=15d, probabilities cluster in the 15-47% range, with a median around 32%, while the 16-day bucket (tau=16d) shows similar dispersion spanning 5-73%, and the 18-day bucket (tau=18d) maintains comparable levels at 5-69%. The 17-day bucket (tau=17d) sits between these, ranging from 5-63%. Rather than a clear steepening or flattening pattern, the curve remains essentially flat with minimal term premium, suggesting the market perceives little meaningful probability shift across the two-week window. The cheapest YES probabilities consistently appear in the 15-day tenor, where several markets price at just 15-20%, particularly RSA, CZE, and NOR outcomes. This flat structure implies the market views the event resolution as relatively imminent and largely predetermined, with minimal expectation that probabilities will materially shift as the event approaches. The absence of a steepening curve—which would suggest increasing conviction over time—indicates that market participants are pricing in outcomes that feel largely settled already. The persistence of very low probabilities (5-15%) across multiple markets and tenors, combined with the flat trajectory, suggests the market is not expecting significant new information to arrive that would substantially alter current odds. Instead, the pricing reflects a snapshot of current consensus that will likely resolve within the immediate 15-18 day window without major probability revisions.