8+ corners

The yield curve exhibits a pronounced flattening pattern across the 15-19 day tenor spectrum, with the shortest-dated markets (tau=15d) showing the highest YES probabilities and longer tenors displaying modest compression. Within the 15-day bucket, YES probabilities range from 23% to 77%, while the 19-day tenor (ARGCPV contracts) clusters between 27% and 72%. The cheapest YES probabilities consistently appear in the lower-numbered contract tiers across all tenors—specifically the -12 and -11 contracts—which trade at 18-32% probability ranges. The 15-day markets command the most trading activity, with NEDMAR-10 and NEDMAR-9 generating $18,997 and $13,963 in 24-hour volume respectively, suggesting these represent the most liquid and price-discovery-relevant contracts. The flattening curve structure indicates the market expects resolution events to cluster heavily in the immediate 15-day window, with minimal probability decay as tenor extends to 19 days. This suggests either a near-term catalyst driving the event family or genuine uncertainty about timing compressed into a tight window. The consistent probability hierarchy across all contracts—where higher-numbered tiers (representing lower outcome thresholds) trade at substantially lower probabilities than lower-numbered tiers—reveals the market perceives a skewed distribution favoring mid-to-high outcome scenarios. The dramatic volume concentration in the shortest tenor combined with near-zero volume in many longer-dated contracts reinforces that market participants view the relevant decision point as imminent, with little conviction about outcomes extending beyond the initial 15-day resolution window.