Will France record the first goal of the game

The yield curve displays a notably flat to slightly inverted structure across the three tenor buckets. The 15-day markets (tau=15d) show YES probabilities ranging from 6% to 62%, with a median around 41%. The 16-17 day markets (tau=16-17d) cluster similarly between 2% and 85%, averaging approximately 43%. The 18-day markets (tau=18d) exhibit the widest dispersion, spanning 1% to 81%, but maintain a comparable median near 42%. Critically, the shortest-tenor 15-day bucket contains the cheapest YES probability at 6% (KXWCFTTS-26JUN24CZEMEX-NONE), while the longest-tenor 18-day bucket also features extremely low probabilities at 1-2% for several NONE outcomes. This flat structure with compressed probability differentials across tenors suggests minimal term premium, indicating the market perceives event resolution timing as relatively imminent and certain within the near term. The flattened yield curve implies the market views the underlying event as likely to resolve within the immediate 15-18 day window, with little differentiation in conviction across these compressed tenors. The absence of a pronounced upward slope suggests no significant probability mass is being pushed into longer-dated resolution scenarios. Instead, the market appears to be pricing a binary near-term outcome, where the event either materializes quickly or the probability of occurrence remains static. The high concentration of liquidity in 18-day markets, particularly in the DZAAUT-NONE contract with $18,512 in 24-hour volume, combined with the flat probability structure, indicates market participants are focused on near-term catalysts rather than expecting extended uncertainty or delayed resolution.