Will France win in Regulation Time

The yield curve displays a pronounced upward slope across the 15-18 day tenor spectrum, with the shortest-dated markets (tau=15d) showing the cheapest YES probabilities. At 15 days, the median YES probability across constituent markets hovers around 10-15%, with several markets pricing as low as 2-6%. The curve then steepens noticeably as tenor extends to 16-18 days, where probabilities climb substantially. By 18 days, many markets price between 60-82% for regional outcomes (ARGREG, COLREG) and 2-7% for extreme tail events. This steep upward slope indicates the market is pricing in a significant probability mass concentrated in the medium-term window rather than the immediate 15-day horizon. The shape of this curve suggests the market views the underlying event as unlikely to occur in the very near term but increasingly probable as the resolution window extends. The sharp rise from 15 to 18 days implies that market participants expect either a catalyst or accumulation of conditions that would trigger the event between days 16-18, rather than an imminent occurrence. The consistent pattern across multiple event families (Mexico, England, USA, Argentina, Colombia, etc.) reinforces this interpretation—the market is not pricing an immediate shock but rather a delayed or developing scenario. The flatness within each tenor bucket and the steep inter-tenor gradient together suggest confidence in a specific timeframe for resolution rather than uncertainty distributed evenly across the entire period.