KXWCTCORNERS

The prediction-market yield curve displays a pronounced downward slope across the 15-18 day tenor range, with the shortest-dated markets (tau=15d) clustering around 40-52% YES probability for primary outcomes, while longer-dated markets (tau=18d) show similar or slightly lower probabilities in the 39-55% range. The cheapest YES probabilities appear concentrated in the 15-17 day bucket, where secondary and tertiary outcomes trade at 3-14%, compared to the 18-day tenor where probabilities remain similarly compressed. This flat-to-slightly-inverted structure suggests minimal term premium across the curve, indicating that market participants do not significantly differentiate between resolution occurring at 15 days versus 18 days. The shape implies the market views the underlying event as imminent and largely binary, with resolution probability heavily front-loaded into the near term. The lack of a steep upward slope indicates no expectation of delayed resolution or gradual probability accumulation over time. Instead, the consistent 40-55% pricing on primary outcomes across all tenors suggests the market perceives a roughly 50-50 proposition that will resolve within the next 15-18 days, with minimal uncertainty about timing itself. The compressed tail probabilities (3-14% on secondary outcomes) across all tenors further reinforce that the market expects a decisive outcome in one of a few specific scenarios rather than a prolonged or uncertain resolution period.