GDP growth in 2026
3.6% to 4.0% is priced at 2¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 1¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 9 inside GDP growth in 2026.
Price history
2¢ current
Contract brief
If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is between 3.6% to 4.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
3.6% to 4.0%
Rank
#9 of 9
Leader
1.6% to 2.0% 26¢
Range
1¢-26¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXGDPYEAR-26-B3.8
Jun 24, 2026, 7:41 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
2¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$16K
Family rank
#9 of 9
9 outcomes · GDP growth in 2026
Closes
Feb 28, 2027
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 2¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is between 3.6% to 4.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Feb 28, 2027
Identifier
KXGDPYEAR-26-B3.8
Event family
GDP growth in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
1.6% to 2.0% 26¢
Current share
0%
1.6% to 2.0%
kalshi · KXGDPYEAR-26-B1.8
2.1% to 2.5%
kalshi · KXGDPYEAR-26-B2.3
1.1% to 1.5%
kalshi · KXGDPYEAR-26-B1.3
2.6% to 3.0%
kalshi · KXGDPYEAR-26-B2.8
3.1% to 3.5%
kalshi · KXGDPYEAR-26-B3.3
0.6% to 1.0%
kalshi · KXGDPYEAR-26-B0.8
0.0% or Below
kalshi · KXGDPYEAR-26-T0.1
0.1% to 0.5%
kalshi · KXGDPYEAR-26-B0.3
3.6% to 4.0%
kalshi · KXGDPYEAR-26-B3.8
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
data_release
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.