Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30 is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
1¢ current
−19¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Outcome
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$358K
Identifier
0x48874462...5b21
Jun 23, 2026, 2:54 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$11
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$358K
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x48874462…5b21
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$358K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30 1¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.