Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
4%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$931
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
11 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
0x488744…5b21
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Miguel Díaz-Canel will be removed from the Cuban presidency within the next three weeks. At 12%, the market is pricing this as unlikely but not negligible. The current probability appears driven by the routine nature of Cuba's political succession processes and the lack of any announced leadership transition, which would push expectations lower. Conversely, any serious political instability, health crisis, or internal party pressure could drive the probability higher. Since there is no scheduled election or formal succession event before June 30, the main catalyst would be an unexpected political development or public announcement regarding Díaz-Canel's status. The tight timeframe (23 days remaining) and the absence of current signals suggest most market participants view an involuntary exit as a low-probability tail event.
- ›No scheduled leadership transition or election is planned before June 30, 2026
- ›Díaz-Canel has maintained control of both the presidency and the Communist Party leadership as of early June 2026
- ›Any removal would likely require action from Cuba's ruling structures, which would need to occur and be publicly announced within 23 days
- ›Historical precedent shows Cuban leadership transitions are typically planned well in advance rather than sudden or unexpected
- ›Market trading volume remains modest ($8,144 in 24-hour volume), suggesting limited conviction among participants on either side
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In politics
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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