SimpleFunctions
kalshiOutcome slate76 markets

Will 21 Savage release a new album in 2026

event base · KXALBUMRELEASE

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 19 Sep 2026Methodology
24h volume
$977
Constituents
76
Distinct tenors
1
Top P(YES)
98.0%
Quavo

Outcome probabilities

76 contracts at one resolution date

Analysis

The yield curve presents a flat structure across all 76 constituent markets, with every contract sharing an identical 104-day tenor to resolution. Within this single tenor bucket, probabilities display extreme heterogeneity, ranging from 2.0% (BEN, BIL, CUA, GRI, JOH, MOR, POL, RIH) to 98.0% (QUA), with a median probability around 20-25%. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster at the 2.0% level across eight markets, while the most expensive contract (QUA at 98.0%) and the second-highest (MIL at 90.0%) suggest the market perceives dramatically different likelihoods for distinct outcomes within the same event family. Trading volume concentrates on a handful of contracts—OFF ($438), KEN ($202.25), BEN ($205), and FRA ($95.65)—indicating selective market interest rather than broad participation. The flat tenor structure combined with wide probability dispersion reveals that the market is not expressing uncertainty about *when* the event occurs, but rather *which specific outcome* within the event family will materialize. The 104-day timeframe appears fixed across all markets, suggesting a predetermined resolution window. The market's current view is that multiple mutually exclusive outcomes are possible within this window, with some outcomes (QUA, MIL, ESD at 71%, POS at 63%, LAN at 58%) perceived as substantially more likely than others (the eight 2.0% contracts). This structure indicates the market is pricing a binary or categorical event with known timing but uncertain resolution, rather than expressing probabilistic views about event timing itself.

Generated 9/19/2026 · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5

Constituent markets

76 kalshi contracts

MarketTenorP(YES)Vol 24h
Will Quavo release a new album in 2026?: Quavo3mo98.0%$0
Will Miley Cyrus release a new album in 2026?: Miley Cyrus3mo91.0%$0
Will Esdeekid release a new album in 2026?: EsDeeKid3mo70.0%$0
Will Post Malone release a new album in 2026?: Post Malone3mo56.0%$0
Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2026?: Taylor Swift3mo51.0%$0
Will Travis Scott release a new album in 2026?: Travis Scott3mo50.0%$0
Will PinkPantheress release a new album in 2026?: PinkPantheress3mo41.0%$0
Will Kali Uchis release a new album in 2026?: Kali Uchis3mo38.0%$0
Will Anuel AA release a new album in 2026?: Anuel AA3mo35.0%$0
Will Calvin Harris release a new album in 2026?: Calvin Harris3mo33.0%$0
Will The Marías release a new album in 2026?: The Marías3mo33.0%$0
Will Lil Wayne release a new album in 2026?: Lil Wayne3mo32.0%$0
Will 21 Savage release a new album in 2026?: 21 Savage3mo31.0%$0
Will Nicki Minaj release a new album in 2026?: Nicki Minaj3mo31.0%$0
Will Tyler, The Creator release a new album in 2026?: Tyler, The Creator3mo31.0%$0
Will Sia release a new album in 2026?: Sia3mo28.0%$0
Will Sabrina Carpenter release a new album in 2026?: Sabrina Carpenter3mo27.0%$0
Will Coldplay release a new album in 2026?: Coldplay3mo26.0%$0
Will NF release a new album in 2026?: NF3mo26.0%$0
Will Lana Del Rey release a new album in 2026?: Lana Del Rey3mo21.0%$10
Will Justin Bieber release a new album in 2026?: Justin Bieber3mo20.0%$0
Will Chappell Roan release a new album in 2026?: Chappell Roan3mo17.0%$0
Will Jay-Z release a new album in 2026?: Jay-Z3mo17.0%$5
Will Kendrick Lamar release a new album in 2026?: Kendrick Lamar3mo17.0%$215
Will Geese release a new album in 2026?: Geese3mo14.0%$0
Will Linkin Park release a new album in 2026?: Linkin Park3mo14.0%$0
Will Lil Nas X release a new album in 2026?: Lil Nas X3mo14.0%$0
Will Addison Rae release a new album in 2026?: Addison Rae3mo13.0%$0
Will Daniel Caesar release a new album in 2026?: Daniel Caesar3mo13.0%$0
Will Eminem release a new album in 2026?: Eminem3mo13.0%$0
Will Frank Ocean release a new album in 2026?: Frank Ocean3mo13.0%$0
Will Justin Timberlake release a new album in 2026?: Justin Timberlake3mo13.0%$0
Will Migos release a new album in 2026?: Migos3mo9.0%$101
Will Lola Young release a new album in 2026?: Lola Young3mo8.0%$0
Will Mariah Carey release a new album in 2026?: Mariah Carey3mo8.0%$0
Will Billie Eilish release a new album in 2026?: Billie Eilish3mo7.0%$23
Will Maroon 5 release a new album in 2026?: Maroon 53mo7.0%$0
Will 2 Chainz release a new album in 2026?: 2 Chainz3mo6.0%$0
Will Doja Cat release a new album in 2026?: Doja Cat3mo6.0%$0
Will PARTYNEXTDOOR release a new album in 2026?: PARTYNEXTDOOR3mo5.0%$0
Will ROSALÍA release a new album in 2026?: ROSALÍA3mo5.0%$0
Will sombr release a new album in 2026?: sombr3mo5.0%$0
Will Playboi Carti release a new album in 2026?: Playboi Carti3mo4.0%$0
Will Bryson Tiller release a new album in 2026?: Bryson Tiller3mo3.0%$0
Will Childish Gambino release a new album in 2026?: Childish Gambino3mo3.0%$0
Will Daft Punk release a new album in 2026?: Daft Punk3mo3.0%$0
Will Shawn Mendes release a new album in 2026?: Shawn Mendes3mo3.0%$0
Will The Weeknd release a new album in 2026?: The Weeknd3mo3.0%$12
Will Lil Baby release a new album in 2026?: Lil Baby3mo2.0%$0
Will Bad Bunny release a new album in 2026?: Bad Bunny3mo2.0%$0
Will Benson Boone release a new album in 2026?: Benson Boone3mo2.0%$0
Will Big Sean release a new album in 2026?: Big Sean3mo2.0%$0
Will blink-182 release a new album in 2026?: blink-1823mo2.0%$0
Will Clairo release a new album in 2026?: Clairo3mo2.0%$0
Will Dua Lipa release a new album in 2026?: Dua Lipa3mo2.0%$0
Will Ed Sheeran release a new album in 2026?: Ed Sheeran3mo2.0%$0
Will Fall Out Boy release a new album in 2026?: Fall Out Boy3mo2.0%$0
Will Grimes release a new album in 2026?: Grimes3mo2.0%$0
Will Ice Spice release a new album in 2026?: Ice Spice3mo2.0%$0
Will John Mayer release a new album in 2026?: John Mayer3mo2.0%$0
Will Khalid release a new album in 2026?: Khalid3mo2.0%$0
Will Leon Thomas release a new album in 2026?: Leon Thomas3mo2.0%$0
Will Megan Thee Stallion release a new album in 2026?: Megan Thee Stallion3mo2.0%$407
Will Morgan Wallen release a new album in 2026?: Morgan Wallen3mo2.0%$0
Will Offset release a new album in 2026?: Offset3mo2.0%$0
Will Olivia Dean release a new album in 2026?: Olivia Dean3mo2.0%$0
Will Ozuna release a new album in 2026?: Ozuna3mo2.0%$0
Will Pharrell Williams release a new album in 2026?: Pharrell Williams3mo2.0%$0
Will Polo G release a new album in 2026?: Polo G3mo2.0%$0
Will Rihanna release a new album in 2026?: Rihanna3mo2.0%$0
Will Roddy Ricch release a new album in 2026?: Roddy Ricch3mo2.0%$0
Will Rauw Alejandro release a new album in 2026?: Rauw Alejandro3mo2.0%$0
Will Rüfüs Du Sol release a new album in 2026?: Rüfüs Du Sol3mo2.0%$205
Will SZA release a new album in 2026?: SZA3mo2.0%$0
Will Tate McRae release a new album in 2026?: Tate McRae3mo2.0%$0
Will USHER release a new album in 2026?: USHER3mo2.0%$0

Browse this series

Artist 2026 Album Release Markets
Collection view — every live contract in this series, sorted by 24h volume. Distinct intent from this term-structure page.

How to read this page

An outcome slate is a set of mutually-exclusive contracts that all settle on the same date. Their YES probabilities form a distribution over which outcome the market expects. Probabilities should roughly sum to 100% minus the venue’s overround.

Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KXALBUMRELEASE on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: Sat, 19 Sep 2026 06:23:57 GMT.