SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

La Liga Match Winner Markets — 24 contracts, SF signal on every row.

24 live Kalshi contracts (60 audited). Median implied probability sits at 28%. 65 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXLALIGAGAME-26AUG19ATMMCF-ATM +66c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 12.0pp · cheapest KXLALIGAGAME-26AUG19ATMMCF-MCF · richest KXLALIGAGAME-26AUG19ATMMCF-ATM.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXLALIGAGAME.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXLALIGAGAME
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXLALIGAGAME
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXLALIGAGAME",
    "label": "La Liga Match Winner Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 24,
    "volume24hSum": 751.32,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.01984
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 06 Aug 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$751
min $0max $903
Breadth3%-97.0pp
min 0%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 12:00 UTC
Jul 30past 7d · UTCAug 6 · 10:23

Live contracts

24

Median IY

28¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$751

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+66¢

KXLALIGAGAME-26AUG19ATMMCF-ATM

La Liga Match Winner Markets — liquidity topography (top 9 of 24 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 824.4 → 36759.7%

$10$1001d7d36759.718792.0824.4

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in La Liga Match Winner Markets

Showing top 20 of 24

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Sevilla vs Vallecano Winner?: Sevilla41¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$354
Santander vs Villarreal Winner?: Villarreal46¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$161
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna Winner?: Celta Vigo46¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 103%Resid —$136
Atletico vs Malaga Winner?: Malaga6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$37
Espanyol vs Levante Winner?: Espanyol45¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$19
Deportivo De La Coruna vs Elche Winner?: Elche26¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$18
Alaves vs Getafe Winner?: Tie33¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$13
Atletico vs Malaga Winner?: Atletico74¢
IY 824%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$12
Sevilla vs Vallecano Winner?: Vallecano27¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1
Deportivo De La Coruna vs Elche Winner?: Tie29¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Vallecano vs Alaves Winner?: Tie28¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Sevilla vs Vallecano Winner?: Tie29¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Espanyol vs Levante Winner?: Levante22¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Espanyol vs Levante Winner?: Tie26¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna Winner?: Osasuna23¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna Winner?: Tie27¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Santander vs Villarreal Winner?: Santander25¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Santander vs Villarreal Winner?: Tie25¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Deportivo De La Coruna vs Elche Winner?: Deportivo De La Coruna42¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Vallecano vs Alaves Winner?: Alaves20¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
24 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in La Liga Match Winner Markets

From market_changes
3h agoKalshi
Atletico vs Malaga Winner?: Atletico
71¢5→71 (+66)
open →
4h agoKalshi
Atletico vs Malaga Winner?: Atletico
5¢70→5 (-65)
open →
22h agoKalshi
Atletico vs Malaga Winner?: Atletico
70¢6→70 (+64)
open →
22h agoKalshi
Atletico vs Malaga Winner?: Atletico
6¢70→6 (-64)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Espanyol vs Levante Winner?: Espanyol
3¢44→3 (-41)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Espanyol vs Levante Winner?: Espanyol
43¢3→43 (+40)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Santander vs Villarreal Winner?: Villarreal
3¢42→3 (-39)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Vallecano vs Alaves Winner?: Vallecano
6¢44→6 (-38)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 06 Aug 2026 11:38:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXLALIGAGAME →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →