Alaves vs Getafe Winner

The yield curve displays a pronounced steepening pattern, with the 15-day tenor markets (tau=15d) showing substantially higher YES probabilities across nearly all matchups compared to the 22-day tenor markets (tau=22d). At the 15-day bucket, YES probabilities cluster in the 23-49% range, with median probabilities around 32-44% depending on the specific matchup. The 22-day tenor markets, by contrast, show dramatically compressed probabilities, with most YES outcomes priced between 4-21%, representing a sharp downward shift. The cheapest YES probabilities appear in the 22-day bucket, where several outcomes trade at just 4-8% (OVI, ALA, GET, RVC, MAL in the later-dated markets), compared to the 15-day floor of approximately 11-26%. This steep downward slope indicates a significant term structure inversion relative to typical event probability curves. The market is currently pricing in a strong expectation that resolution events will occur within the 15-day window, with substantially diminished conviction about outcomes materializing in the 22-day period. The dramatic probability compression moving from 15 to 22 days suggests either that most relevant games are scheduled to conclude by May 26, or that the market assigns very low probability to additional qualifying events occurring in the subsequent week. The steepness of this curve implies high confidence in near-term resolution rather than uncertainty distributed across time. The consistent pattern across all 57 constituent markets—where later-dated tenors are uniformly cheaper—reinforces that traders view the event family as front-loaded temporally, with minimal tail risk extending into late May.